If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.
How Low Can the Dollar Go? Thoughts from 12 Experts.
By Jessica Hupp
Currency Trading.net (right-click=new window)
Recently the dollar has seen troubled times. After reaching parity with the Canadian dollar and the offloading of US Treasuries from Asian countries, things just aren’t looking good. Find out what financial experts have to say about the dollar’s future.
The Telegraph reports, “Barclays expect the Fed to cut rates by another quarter point to 5pc in a move that further erode one of the dollar’s key props.” Paul Robinson, strategist for Barclays, explains, “We’re dollar bears. The dollar is coming up for an important few weeks. We expect it to get quite a bit weaker.” They believe that it’s possible the dollar could fall to $1.50 on the euro.
Thomas Stopler, economist for Goldman Sachs, predicts a troublesome future for the dollar. Based on the negative capital-flows situation, he interprets data to mean that “there will be a weaker dollar.”
According to a report from The Telegraph, “data from the US Treasury showed outflows of $163bn (£80bn) from all forms of US investments.” Mac Ostwald of Insinger de Beaufort finds these numbers “absolutely stunning,” and warns that inflation could make things even worse for the dollar: “”Woe betide US Treasuries if inflation does not remain benign.” $52 billion worth of the treasuries in the outflow are from Asian investors, including Japan, China, and Taiwan.
According to Ian Stannard of Paribas, things aren’t looking good for the dollar, as “it is not just foreigners who are selling US assets. Americans are turning their back as well.” He believes that this situation “exceeds the worst fears,” and ultimately, the data is “extremely negative” for the dollar.
Although the dollar has fallen quite a bit already, International Monetary Fund chief Rodrigo de Rato asserts that it’s still “overvalued relative to medium-term fundamentals.” Digital Journal reports that the IMF hinted, “the dollar may be headed for further decline,” with the US trade deficit, slow-growing economy, and cut in interest rates to blame.
- 6. Jerome Booth, Ashmore Group: “The dollar will keep falling in the near term no matter what”.
Jerome Booth isn’t optimistic for the dollar, either. He believes that it’s just not a good investment vehicle: “It’s a question of returns, and returns in dollar-denominated assets are simply very low when compared with other regions”. Because of this, his prediction is grim, asserting that “the dollar will keep falling in the near term no matter what”.
In a note to clients, Wells Fargo currency strategist Nick Bennenbroek asserts that there’s still room for a greater dollar fall. He explains, “We do believe the greenback is consolidating and not too far from bottoming out, but today’s price action suggests there is still potential for some further weakness.” According to Bennenbroek, recent gains in the dollar’s strength are “corrective”.
Senior Bank of New York Mellon strategist Michael Woolfolk seems to think data and opinionated buzz points to a weakening dollar. “Bearish dollar-sentiment appears to be solidly in place going into the weekend,” he said. Because of this, Woolfolk thinks that, regardless of incoming US data, “the dollar has further room to fall”.
Greenspan doesn’t see doom in the dollar’s near future. Although China sales of US Treasuries are troublesome, he believes that “markets are clever enough not to overreact.” He says this is old news, and doesn’t expect to see a large reaction. An attendee of Greenspan’s presentation reports his sentiment as, “It’s already-known information that won’t trigger any rapid drop in the U.S. dollar.”
Eisuke Sakakibara is concerned that if US economic growth “fall[s] below 1 percent”, the dollar may “plunge.” This plunge, according to Sakakibara, would require intervention from the US, Japan and the EU to put a stop to it.
Masashi Kurabe sees the possibility of stagflation, a period of both inflation and economic stagnation. “Economic data raise the question whether the U.S. economy will fall into stagflation,” he says. A period of stagflation could have “negative implications for the dollar”.
Mansoor Mohiuddin sees a positive future for the dollar, calling its current weakness “unsustainable”. He believes that the G7 meeting will spark a resurgence of the dollar, explaining, “A strong G7 statement this weekend could be just what the dollar needs”. Bloomberg reports UBS “predicted the dollar will rise 5.2 percent in the next three months as the Federal Reserve delays further interest rate cuts”.
Despite a few experts with a positive outlook for the dollar, the general consensus reflects a future that doesn’t look good. According to these experts, there is room for the dollar to continue to fall, and currency traders should vigilantly look for political and economic indicators that could bring trouble for the dollar.
2Chronicles7:14~If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin, and will heal their land.
Matthew Henry’s Commentary:
God’s answer to Solomon’s prayer.
God gave a gracious answer to Solomon’s prayer. The mercies of God to sinners are made known in a manner well suited to impress all who receive them, with his majesty and holiness. The people worshipped and praised God. When he manifests himself as a consuming Fire to sinners, his people can rejoice in him as their Light. Nay, they had reason to say, that God was good in this. It is of the Lord’s mercies we are not consumed, but the sacrifice in our stead, for which we should be very thankful. And whoever beholds with true faith, the Saviour agonizing and dying for man’s sin, will, by that view, find his godly sorrow enlarged, his hatred of sin increased, his soul made more watchful, and his life more holy. Solomon prosperously affected all he designed, for adorning both God’s house and his own. Those who begin with the service of God are likely to go on successfully in their own affairs. It was Solomon’s praise, that what he undertook, he went through with; it was by the grace of God that he prospered in it. Let us then stand in awe, and sin not. Let us fear the Lord’s displeasure, hope in his mercy, and walk in his commandments.
His Eye Is On the Sparrow…Matthew 10:29